Peak Oil -- Not the end of oil, but the end of easily extracted oil.

So today a little known news story was run in a British paper. The story was about a oil industry whistle blower who has accused the group that predicts energy reserves for most of the major countries (funded and sponsored by countries and the energy industry) of over estimating the amount of oil in the ground and being pressured by the USA to do so. The long and short of it is that peak oil happened this past year and from here on out the amount of cheap easily extracted oil is only going decline. In addition we can expect a 6 degree centigrade rise in global temperature over the next 20 years. This is very concerning in two ways. First this is the organization that up till now had the "no worries" attitude. Second this is the organization that works for the oil companies. If they know this is the end, then who is left to defend the perceived unlimited supply of oil thinking. At the same time this article came out, another was published in response to say "don't worry". From my 39 years on this planet whenever someone says "don't worry" what that really means is "you shouldn't worry, but I am scared as hell". When I look at two sides to a story I try to look at the middle ground. Lets cut the temp rise in half, only 3 degrees centigrade. This is still really bad. I am glad that I am up 100ft above sea level. I should have ocean front property in about 25 years. What is the peak oil thing all about. Here are my thoughts.

1. There will always be oil available, but getting it out of the ground may take more energy than the product will provide.

2. The costs of getting out of the ground will make it very expensive for consumers.

3. Other than the middle east countries most countries are either pumped out or close. The US pumped out in the early 1970's.

4. As the economy recovers people will use more oil, demand goes up, supply goes down, prices go up.

5. It wont matter how much is left if we keep burning it because mother nature is going to clean house and will not allow such a dramatic shift. For every action there is an equal reaction.

6. No matter how much solar power, wind power, tidal power, nuclear power we build if we don't start using less we will never be able to keep up. The first step to a green economy is using less.

So believe what you want and deny what you want, we are all in for a wild ride if we don't curb our consumption.

Here is my prediction.... We will be paying $6/gal for gas in the next 18 months. Not because of increased demand, but because of decreasing supply.

I leave you with a quote from a friend

"When are we going to stop building bombs and little plastic crap"